Macroeconomic variables are affecting the cryptocurrency market, and the correlation with the US stock market is approaching historical highs

发布时间：2025-06-18 15:29:35 来源：绝无仅有网 作者：宏观研究

According to a correlation study, the trends of digital assets and US stocks are more synchronized than ever before, indicating that macroeconomic variables driving the stock market are also affecting the cryptocurrency market.

According to data compiled by Bloomberg, the 40 day correlation coefficient between the top 100 digital assets and the S&P 500 index is approximately 0.67, approaching the high of 0.72 reached in the second quarter of 2022. When the correlation coefficient is 1, it represents that the trends of each asset are completely synchronized, while -1 indicates a completely reverse correlation.

Last week, the Federal Reserve aggressively cut interest rates by 50 basis points, ushering in the expected monetary easing cycle. US stocks hit a historic high, and Bitcoin also broke through $64000.

For various traders, the upcoming release of US economic data is now crucial as they can search for clues about the extent and speed of potential further reductions in benchmark borrowing costs. Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, a liquidity provider for digital asset derivatives trading, said:

At present, macro factors are driving the prices of cryptocurrencies, and this situation should continue throughout the loose cycle of the Federal Reserve, unless we see black swan events specific to the cryptocurrency sector

This week's focus is on comments from Federal Reserve officials and the release of the central bank's preferred inflation indicator - the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE Index). Sean McNulty, the head of trading at Arbelos Markets, a liquidity provider, stated:

We believe that the speaker's speech is more important than PCE inflation data, as the key that the market is currently trying to clarify is the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) response mechanism

Source: Bloomberg

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